Hear from business owners and voters in Erie, Pennsylvania. They can help set up the White House.

ERIE, Pa. – It wasn’t long when he bought it, but Michael Hooks has made the old garage his hideout. And the city of Erie knows it. Half a dozen cars honk as they drive past on an October afternoon, people hanging out of car windows to wave.

About a dozen cars await service at the shop like a dog Hooks adopted the day before he barks in his new cage. Exercise equipment, motorcycles and power tools line the kitchen on the side of the renovated building where his wife cooks a meal. At 6 feet, 2 inches, and of a stocky build, Hooks has a graying beard and a curly head he says can be associated with blizzards this time of year.

“I must be one of the only black businesses on this street,” he says, noting that his repair shop sits on Peach Street, one of the city’s main traffic arteries. He appreciates greetings from passers-by. But he says many people who know him from the neighborhoods where he grew up will never set foot in the store. Almost all of his customers are white.

Hooks, 58, is a member of a coveted demographic in this year’s election — a black man and business owner in a mobile state. Both presidential campaigns have targeted black entrepreneurs with their messaging, offering a variety of economic policies and legislation that each side says will boost the careers and lives of African Americans.

How Erie business owners and voters like Hooks view each candidate’s economic vision could determine control of the White House. Erie County has chosen the candidate who won Pennsylvania in every presidential election since 1992. Both Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris have visited the city of 94,000 in recent weeks.

“Erie is a hot spot,” said Rhonda Matthews, co-founder of Erie Black Wall Street, a business group that supports local black entrepreneurs. From population rates to business startups, the future of Erie’s economy and politics has shown where the country can go. “I think if you want to know what’s going on economically in the country, you can look and see what’s going on in Erie.”

Concerns about ‘lack of predictability’

Harris has presented a series of economic proposals aimed at addressing affordability and boosting small businesses. Trump has highlighted his promise of sweeping tariffs, new corporate tax cuts and an unprecedented crackdown on illegal and legal immigration into the country.

Small business owner Michael Hooks stands in the kitchen of his...

Small business owner Michael Hooks stands in the kitchen of his catering business in Erie, Pa. Friday, November 1, 2024. Credit: AP/Gene J. Puskar

Local leaders are weighing the impact of each agenda on their plans to renew the Rust Belt.

“Lack of predictability would be the worst thing possible,” said Drew Whiting, CEO of the Erie Downtown Development Corporation, which is leading more than $100 million in private investment in the downtown area.

Whiting praised federal policies such as Qualified Opportunity Zones, which aim to spur economic development in low-income communities and were created as part of the Trump administration’s 2017 tax overhaul, as well as the investments in Erie enabled by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, spearheaded by Democratic President Joe Biden.

But Whiting added that “tough” policies like Trump’s proposed 20% tariffs on all foreign goods threatened to be “an inflation bomb that would crush small businesses” like those he works with. Whiting considered Harris’ proposed investments in small businesses a potential boon. A no-tax-on-tips policy, which Harris and Trump favor, would be a welcome innovation for workers, he said.

Small business owner Michael Hooks stands outside his building that...

Small business owner Michael Hooks stands outside his building that houses his catering business in Erie, Pa. Friday, November 1, 2024. Credit: AP/Gene J. Puskar

The Harris campaign has touted affordability as a top voter concern amid rising inflation. Her proposals to punish companies that cut prices and her promises to expand support for health care and child care are issues the campaign believes could lower costs for working families. In contrast, Trump would lower the corporate tax rate to 15%, extend his tax cuts and further cut other individual and family taxes, including eliminating Social Security taxes.

Most mainstream economists agree that Trump’s proposals would worsen inflation.

Local business owners who spoke to The Associated Press expressed cautious optimism about Harris’ proposals to support small businesses, though most were largely skeptical about the impact federal policy could have on their lives.

“There are just so many factors, things to consider from here and global factors,” said Gus Paliouras, owner of New York Lunch, a local restaurant. Palioura’s family immigrated to the United States from Greece and bought the bar in 1970, when it was one of dozens of bustling businesses atop a post office, school and church. Now Palioura’s diner is the only storefront left on the block.

“I try to keep it like Geneva here,” he said, referring to the city in famously neutral Switzerland. “In this town, we can have Trump, Kamala and Kennedy supporters sitting next to each other on the bar.” Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was in the race until August, when he suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.

A business owner sees the divisions of his city

Hooks considers himself a survivor.

Born and raised in Erie, Hooks grew up in poverty and with little opportunity, support or direction for his life. At the age of 23, he was sentenced to 30 years for dealing in marijuana. He served eight years in prison, an experience he described as “the best thing that ever happened to me”.

Prison was the first place where Hooks was exposed to the scriptures – the Bible and the Koran – as well as stories about travel, business and history.

While he has transformed his circumstances and overcome “trials and tribulations that made me a better man,” he finds the distinctions that some make between poor, working, and middle-class people meaningless.

“It’s because we have people in this country who want to be better than anybody else,” he said in a recent interview. “You drive a Toyota Camry, I drive a Lexus. It’s the same car… It’s just a different name, but it’s a higher status.”

“For example, (Harris) says she wants to give us a $50,000 tax break or whatever,” he added, referring to the vice president’s proposed tax credit for new small businesses. “But that could never be done with people who think they’re better than anybody else, but you live next door to me and your sign says Trump.”

In addition to his car care company, Hooks now runs a catering business. On weekends he returns to the neighborhoods where he grew up to feed, clothe and cut the children’s hair for free. His charitable efforts are focused on ensuring that children never have to go through the experiences he once faced.

Hooks is skeptical of politicians’ ability to change fundamental problems facing everyday Americans, but says he will vote for Harris.

“Trump had the opportunity to be great,” Hooks said, but called Trump’s first term a “disaster.” Hooks said he preferred to “go with someone who can at least try to help the little guy.”

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